Key Points
- The IAEA warns Iran is nearing nuclear weapons capability, with enough enriched uranium for multiple bombs.
- IAEA chief Rafael Grossi visits Tehran for urgent talks as US-Iran nuclear negotiations reach a critical stage.
- Iran has ramped up uranium enrichment to 60%, just short of weapons-grade, since the 2018 collapse of the nuclear deal.
- Only nine countries currently possess nuclear weapons, with Russia and the US holding nearly 90% of the world’s stockpile.
- A nuclear-armed Iran could spark a new arms race in the Middle East and threaten global security.
New Delhi: The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has sounded a stark warning: Iran is now “not far” from being able to build nuclear weapons, having amassed enough enriched uranium and technical expertise to assemble a bomb in the near future. IAEA chief Rafael Mariano Grossi issued the alert just hours before landing in Tehran for high-stakes talks with Iranian officials, as the world watches closely amid mounting geopolitical tensions.
Grossi likened Iran’s nuclear progress to a nearly completed jigsaw puzzle: “They have the pieces, and one day they could eventually put them together,” he told French media, emphasizing that while Iran has not yet built a bomb, it possesses all the necessary components. The IAEA is pressing for verifiable assurances from Iran, as diplomatic negotiations with the US intensify.
US-Iran Talks at a Crossroads
Grossi’s visit coincides with a critical round of US-Iran nuclear negotiations, set to continue in Rome after initial talks in Oman. The discussions are urgent: since the US withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal in 2018, Iran has dramatically expanded its nuclear program, enriching uranium to 60% purity just below the 90% needed for weapons. Iran now has enough material for several nuclear bombs and can potentially produce weapons-grade uranium for multiple warheads within weeks.
IAEA monitoring has been restricted, with Iran limiting inspector access and surveillance, raising further concerns about the true extent of its nuclear activities. Western governments and Israel have repeatedly warned that a nuclear-armed Iran would destabilize the Middle East and could trigger a regional arms race.
The World’s Nuclear Powers: Who Holds the Bombs?
Currently, only nine countries officially possess nuclear weapons: Russia, United States, China, France, United Kingdom, India, Pakistan, Israel, and North Korea. Together, they hold over 12,000 nuclear warheads, with more than 88% controlled by Russia and the US. Here’s a breakdown of the estimated nuclear arsenals:
| Country | Estimated Warheads (2025) |
|---|---|
| Russia | 5,580 |
| United States | 5,044 |
| China | 500 |
| France | 290 |
| United Kingdom | 225 |
| India | 172 |
| Pakistan | 170 |
| Israel | 90 |
| North Korea | 50 |
Sources: Federation of American Scientists, World Population Review, ICAN
What’s at Stake: Global Security and a New Arms Race
The possibility of Iran joining the nuclear club has alarmed the international community. Experts warn that if Iran acquires nuclear weapons, it could embolden Tehran’s regional ambitions, threaten Israel, and prompt rivals like Saudi Arabia to seek their own nuclear deterrent, potentially igniting a new arms race in the Middle East. The IAEA and world powers are racing against time to secure a verifiable agreement that would prevent Iran from crossing the nuclear threshold.
As diplomatic efforts intensify, the world faces a pivotal moment: will Iran be stopped before it joins the ranks of nuclear-armed states, or will a new era of nuclear uncertainty begin?
