IMD’s Missed Forecast: How Delhi’s Monsoon Caught Everyone Off Guard

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Delhi Rains on friday

New Delhi: On the first day of monsoon, New Delhi experienced an extraordinary weather event, with a staggering 228.1 mm of rain pouring down relentlessly for three consecutive hours. This deluge marks the highest rainfall recorded in June since 1936, catching meteorologists off guard and leaving the city grappling with waterlogged streets and disrupted routines.

The Unexpected Thunderstorm Surge

Meteorologists admit that their forecast models failed to predict this extreme weather event. The sudden torrential rain in North Delhi caught everyone by surprise, and scientists attribute it to an intense thunderstorm. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) had initially predicted only moderate rain, but Mother Nature had other plans.

Historic Rainfall Figures

Delhi’s rainfall data reveals the gravity of this event. After 1936, the city has not witnessed such heavy June rainfall in 88 years. This rainfall amount ranks as the second-highest recorded between 1901 and 2024. The Safdarjung Observatory, Delhi’s primary weather station, logged an impressive 148.5 mm of rain between 2:30 am and 5:30 am well before the IMD issued its alert.

Monsoon’s Unpredictable Behavior

Why did this happen? A low-pressure area over the northwest Bay of Bengal, combined with monsoon winds, triggered the downpour. The monsoon, sluggish until recently, suddenly gained momentum, sweeping across the country. The cyclonic circulation over northeast Rajasthan also played a role, intensifying the rainfall. IMD Director General M. Mohapatra emphasized that predicting such thunderstorms in advance remains challenging.

Delhi Rains on friday

What Lies Ahead

The IMD now warns of more rain. An “orange alert” is in place for the next two days, forecasting “moderate to heavy rain” on Saturday and “heavy to very heavy” rainfall on Sunday. Delhi’s maximum temperature dropped to 32.5°C, a relief from the scorching heat, and further cooling is expected over the weekend.

As the city grapples with the aftermath, political blame games ensue. The AAP, BJP, and Congress trade accusations, while Delhi residents cope with flooded roads, power outages, and unexpected challenges brought by this historic monsoon surge.

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