Mumbai: The Maharashtra Assembly elections have delivered a decisive verdict, with Chief Minister Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena faction outshining the rival Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT). Contesting as part of the ruling Mahayuti alliance, Shinde’s faction won 57 out of 81 seats, securing a significant lead over Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena (UBT), which managed to clinch only 20 out of 95 contested seats.
Key Numbers That Define the Outcome
- Shinde’s Shiv Sena (Mahayuti): 57 seats with a 12.38% vote share.
- Uddhav’s Shiv Sena (UBT): 20 seats with a 9.96% vote share.
- The Mahayuti alliance, led by the BJP, swept the elections with a resounding 230 seats out of 288, solidifying its dominance.
Despite losing to Uddhav’s candidates on 14 seats, the Shinde faction emerged victorious on key battlegrounds. The election symbol played a pivotal role, giving Shinde’s faction an edge as voters recognized it as the “real” Shiv Sena.
The Symbol That Changed the Game: ‘Bow and Arrow’ Resurgence
The electoral success of Shinde’s faction is attributed to the reinstatement of the traditional ‘bow and arrow’ symbol by the Election Commission. In the Lok Sabha elections, the confusion caused by the allocation of new symbols ‘torch’ for Uddhav’s faction and ‘two swords and a shield’ for Shinde’s had diluted their respective voter bases.
In the assembly elections, the return of the ‘bow and arrow’ to Shinde’s faction proved decisive. Voters, associating the symbol with the legacy of Balasaheb Thackeray, rallied behind Shinde, marking a shift in public perception of who represents the “real” Shiv Sena.
Shinde’s Victory: A Sympathetic Wave or Strategic Win?
While Uddhav Thackeray gained some sympathy votes in the Lok Sabha polls following the rebellion, the assembly elections painted a different picture. Analysts attribute Shinde’s victory to:
- Clearer Identity: The reclaiming of the traditional Shiv Sena symbol clarified voter confusion.
- Perception Shift: Shinde’s leadership appealed to voters as he positioned himself as Balasaheb Thackeray’s true ideological heir.
- Alliance Dynamics: Being part of the Mahayuti coalition gave Shinde’s faction access to a stronger organizational network and resources.
Will Shinde Face a ‘Chair’ Challenge?
With the Mahayuti alliance’s sweeping win, attention now shifts to the Chief Minister’s post. The BJP, having won 145 seats on its own, holds a commanding position. In contrast, Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena has 57 seats, leaving him dependent on BJP’s support for the CM chair.
The situation mirrors the post-2019 elections when a similar tussle arose between Uddhav Thackeray and the BJP. Back then, disagreements over a rotational Chief Minister arrangement led to Shiv Sena breaking ties with the BJP, forming the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) with the NCP and Congress.
This time, the stakes are different:
- BJP’s dominance ensures it can form the government independently with other allies, like Ajit Pawar’s NCP, even if Shinde’s faction were to part ways.
- The question remains whether Shinde will negotiate a power-sharing agreement or face marginalization within the coalition.
What Lies Ahead for Maharashtra?
The election results not only define the political landscape of Maharashtra but also pose significant challenges for both factions of the Shiv Sena:
- For Shinde: Maintaining relevance and bargaining power within the BJP-dominated Mahayuti alliance.
- For Uddhav: Rebuilding the Shiv Sena (UBT) and regaining the trust of voters amid declining fortunes.
The battle for the “real” Shiv Sena might be over, with Shinde emerging victorious this time. However, the path ahead will test his ability to navigate the complexities of coalition politics and assert his leadership in Maharashtra’s governance.
