New Delhi: The Congress party has made a notable comeback in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, rekindling its relevance on the national stage. However, the nation’s political trajectory hinges on the outcomes of three key state assembly elections Haryana, Maharashtra, and Jharkhand. While the BJP has already defied odds with a resounding victory in Haryana, the focus has now shifted to Maharashtra and Jharkhand, where exit polls are setting the stage for intense political speculation.
Maharashtra Assembly Exit Polls: BJP-led Mahayuti Expected to Retain Power
In Maharashtra, early trends suggest the BJP-led Mahayuti (Grand Alliance) is likely to retain its grip on power. Here’s what the major exit polls indicate:
- Matrise Survey:
- Mahayuti: 150–170 seats
- Mahavikas Aghadi (Congress-led alliance): 110–130 seats
- Others: 8–10 seats
- Chanakya Strategies:
- Mahayuti: 152–160 seats
- Mahavikas Aghadi: 130–138 seats
- P-Mark Survey:
- Mahayuti: 137–157 seats
- Mahavikas Aghadi: 126–146 seats
The projections suggest a tough fight but lean heavily in favor of the BJP-led alliance.
Jharkhand: A Neck-and-Neck Battle Between BJP and JMM-Led INDIA Alliance
Jharkhand’s assembly elections appear to be heading for a fierce contest. Exit polls present varying outcomes:
- Matrise Survey:
- BJP Plus: 42–47 seats
- JMM-led INDIA alliance: 25–30 seats
- Others: 1–4 seats
- Times Now JVC Survey:
- BJP Plus: 40–44 seats
- JMM-led INDIA alliance: 30–40 seats
These results underline a significant competition, with the BJP enjoying a slight edge in most surveys.
The Crossroads of Indian Politics: INDIA vs. NDA
The nation finds itself at a political juncture defined by two dominant alliances—the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the opposition INDIA coalition. This binary is set to shape electoral dynamics as assembly elections in Delhi and Bihar loom in early 2025.
Delhi: Kejriwal’s Dominance Faces Challenges
For over a decade, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), led by Arvind Kejriwal, has commanded Delhi’s political scene. However, the upcoming elections could witness the BJP and Congress stepping up efforts to challenge AAP’s hold, making it a three-way contest.
Bihar: Political Upheavals Galore
Bihar remains a politically volatile state with no single party securing a decisive majority in over a decade. The upcoming elections will be a battle between the NDA and INDIA alliance, with major players like the BJP, JDU, RJD, Congress, and LJP vying for dominance. Small regional parties are also expected to influence the final outcome. Given Bihar’s pivotal role in national politics, the stakes are exceptionally high.
What Lies Ahead for Indian Politics?
The results of these assembly elections will not only determine state leaderships but also shape the broader national narrative ahead of the 2025 elections. If the BJP manages victories in Maharashtra, Jharkhand, and Haryana, it could cement a wave of support for the NDA across the country. Conversely, a strong showing by the INDIA coalition could signal the resurgence of the opposition, providing a major morale boost for upcoming electoral battles.
