Key Points
- Trump confirmed F-35 sale to Saudi Arabia on November 17, 2025, with Saudi Arabia requesting 48 jets worth approximately $4.8 billion
- Saudi Arabia will become first Arab nation to operate 5th-generation stealth fighters, ending Israel’s exclusive F-35 status in Middle East
- Israel’s Defense Forces formally opposed the sale on November 17, warning it threatens Israel’s air superiority and Qualitative Military Edge
- Deal includes Strategic Defense Agreement and Saudi investment pledge increased from $600 billion to $1 trillion in US
- Defense Intelligence Agency warns of technology leak risks to China through Saudi Arabia’s strong defense and trade ties
New Delhi: US President Donald Trump’s major announcement has created a stir across the Middle East and South Asia, as the path for Saudi Arabia to acquire state-of-the-art stealth fighter jets like the F-35 is now virtually clear. Israel and India are most concerned by this decision, as it could fundamentally alter the regional balance of power and potentially trigger a new arms race. Defense experts consider this development the beginning of unprecedented military competition in the region.
Trump announced his approval of the F-35 fighter jet sale to Saudi Arabia on Monday, November 17, 2025, just one day before Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s high-profile visit to the White House. Speaking to reporters in the Oval Office alongside the Crown Prince, Trump stated, “We will do it, we will be selling the F-35s,” confirming that Saudi Arabia would receive jets “pretty similar” to those supplied to Israel. This statement came despite warnings from Pentagon intelligence officials and several regional allies about serious risks associated with the deal.
Strategic Defense Partnership and Investment Commitments
The F-35 sale announcement was part of a broader package of landmark agreements signed between the United States and Saudi Arabia on November 18, 2025. President Trump and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman formalized a series of deals that deepen the US-Saudi strategic partnership, including the Strategic Defense Agreement (SDA), Civil Nuclear Cooperation Agreement, Critical Minerals Framework, and AI Memorandum of Understanding.
During the Oval Office meeting, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman announced that Saudi Arabia would increase its planned investment commitments in the United States from $600 billion to nearly $1 trillion, reflecting deepening trust and momentum under President Trump’s leadership. Trump welcomed this announcement enthusiastically, stating, “Good, I like that very much,” and emphasizing that these deals translate directly into high-paying jobs for American workers. The Crown Prince was received with an elaborate ceremony on the White House South Lawn, including a military honor guard, cannon salute, and flyover by US warplanes, marking his first White House visit in more than seven years.
Israel’s Strong Opposition, Threat to Qualitative Military Edge
On November 17, 2025, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) submitted a formal document to its leadership expressing strong opposition to the F-35 sale to Saudi Arabia. Israel states that the acquisition of these fifth-generation stealth aircraft by Saudi Arabia would significantly weaken its Qualitative Military Edge (QME), a principle enshrined in US law that guarantees Israel maintains military superiority over its neighbors.
The IDF warned that Israel’s air superiority critically depends on 5th-generation stealth jets like the F-35, and that the country’s capability to conduct long-range covert operations would be directly impacted if Saudi Arabia operates the same advanced aircraft. Israeli military officials also expressed concerns that increased F-35 production pressures to fulfill Saudi orders could delay Israel’s planned delivery of a new F-35 squadron, further compromising its strategic position.
When asked during the Oval Office meeting how the administration planned to uphold Israel’s military advantage while approving Saudi Arabia’s request for the same fifth-generation aircraft, Trump replied that both countries remain close US partners. He acknowledged that Israel would have preferred Saudi Arabia receive “planes of reduced caliber,” but added, “As far as I’m concerned, I think they are both at a level where they should get top of the line”. The Trump administration has not yet clarified whether Israel will receive any additional military capabilities or technological enhancements in return for accepting this strategic shift.
Defense Intelligence Agency Warns of Technology Leak to China
A confidential report from the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) has raised serious concerns that if the F-35 deal is completed, China could potentially acquire sensitive F-35 technology through various channels. The intelligence assessment identifies several risk factors that make technology leakage a credible threat.
The primary concerns include Saudi Arabia’s increasingly strong defense and trade ties with China, joint naval exercises conducted between the two countries in recent years, and China’s status as Saudi Arabia’s largest trading partner, with billions of dollars in annual bilateral trade. According to defense experts and intelligence analysts, the risk of inadvertent or deliberate technology leaks is very high given these interconnected relationships. The F-35 contains some of the most advanced stealth, sensor fusion, and avionics technology in existence, making any potential compromise of its systems a matter of grave national security concern for the United States and its allies.
India Raises Concerns Over Saudi-Pakistan Defense Pact
India has also expressed significant concern about the F-35 deal to Saudi Arabia, primarily due to the recent defense agreement between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. The bilateral defense pact between Riyadh and Islamabad stipulates that an attack on one country will be considered an attack on the other, creating a mutual defense arrangement that has alarmed Indian strategic planners.
Indian defense experts and policymakers worry that Pakistan could indirectly receive access to American military technology through its strengthened partnership with Saudi Arabia. While direct transfer of F-35 aircraft or technology to Pakistan would violate US arms export regulations, the concern is that joint training exercises, intelligence sharing, and defense cooperation between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan could allow Islamabad to gain valuable insights into the capabilities and vulnerabilities of fifth-generation stealth aircraft.
The acquisition of F-35s will significantly increase Saudi Arabia’s air power projection capabilities across the region. Neighboring countries, including India, will be compelled to re-evaluate and potentially upgrade their missile defense systems and air defense strategies to counter this new threat. Defense analysts believe this development could trigger a new arms race in South Asia and the broader Middle East, with multiple countries seeking to acquire or develop advanced combat aircraft to maintain strategic parity.
Saudi Arabia’s Major Order for 48 F-35 Aircraft
Saudi Arabia has formally requested from Lockheed Martin the purchase of up to 48 F-35 Lightning II stealth fighter jets. If the deal receives final congressional approval and is fully implemented, Saudi Arabia will become the first Arab air force to possess fifth-generation stealth fighter jets, fundamentally reshaping the regional military landscape.
Currently, only Israel operates the F-35 in the Middle East, with the Israeli Air Force having received multiple squadrons of the advanced aircraft since 2016. The sale to Saudi Arabia would end Israel’s exclusive status as the sole F-35 operator in the region, creating a significant shift in the military balance.
The cost of a single F-35 aircraft is estimated to be approximately $100 million, depending on the specific variant and associated support packages, putting the total potential value of the Saudi order at around $4.8 billion for the aircraft alone. When including weapons systems, training, maintenance contracts, and long-term support, the total deal value could exceed $10-15 billion over the lifetime of the program.
White House Emphasizes American Jobs and Defense Industrial Base
President Trump approved the major defense sale package, which includes future F-35 deliveries and nearly 300 American tanks, emphasizing that it strengthens the US defense industrial base and ensures Saudi Arabia continues to buy American military equipment. The White House stated that these defense agreements will safeguard hundreds of high-paying American jobs at companies like Lockheed Martin, which manufactures the F-35 at its Fort Worth, Texas, facility.
The Strategic Defense Agreement signed between the two countries makes it easier for US defense firms to operate in Saudi Arabia, secures new burden-sharing funds from the Kingdom to defray US costs, and affirms that Saudi Arabia views the United States as its primary strategic partner. The administration has framed the deal as a win for the “America First” agenda, arguing that it enhances US manufacturing, creates domestic employment, and strengthens America’s position as the world’s leading defense technology provider.
Regional Implications and Arms Race Concerns
The F-35 sale represents a fundamental shift in Middle Eastern security dynamics that extends far beyond the immediate transaction. For decades, the United States has carefully calibrated its arms sales to maintain Israel’s qualitative military edge while also supporting Arab partners like Saudi Arabia. This deal breaks that longstanding policy framework by providing Saudi Arabia with the same cutting-edge technology previously reserved exclusively for Israel.
When asked whether Israel sought to tie the aircraft sale to Saudi Arabia agreeing to normalize diplomatic relations with Jerusalem, Trump avoided giving a direct answer. He stated only that Israel knows about the deal and “they’re going to be very happy,” though Israeli officials have publicly expressed strong reservations. The vague response has fueled speculation that the F-35 sale may be connected to broader regional diplomatic efforts, though no formal normalization agreement has been announced.
Defense analysts warn that other regional powers, including Iran, Turkey, Egypt, and potentially Pakistan through its Saudi connection, may now seek to acquire or accelerate development of their own advanced combat aircraft programs. This competitive dynamic could drive increased military spending across the Middle East and South Asia, diverting resources from economic development and potentially increasing regional tensions.
