Key Points
- Scandal: The dismissal of US Ambassador Peter Mandelson over Jeffrey Epstein ties has severely destabilized the Starmer government.
- Successor: Shabana Mahmood is tipped as a top candidate, potentially becoming the United Kingdom’s first Muslim Prime Minister.
- Policy: As Home Secretary, Mahmood has championed hardline immigration reforms, including doubling the time required for permanent residency.
- Internal Dissent: Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney, resigned on February 8, 2026, leaving the premiership vulnerable.
- Leadership Rules: A formal challenge requires support from 81 Labour MPs, with several contenders now “on maneuvers.”
British politics reached a historic turning point on February 9, 2026, as Prime Minister Keir Starmer fought to retain control of his cabinet. The current crisis centers on the sudden release of a new cache of the “Epstein files” in the United States, which revealed deeply compromising links between the late financier Jeffrey Epstein and Lord Peter Mandelson. Starmer, who had appointed Mandelson as the UK Ambassador to Washington in late 2024, was forced to dismiss him last week after leaked emails suggested the peer had shared confidential government documents with Epstein and received financial stipends for his family.
The fallout has been swift, leading to the resignation of Starmer’s closest advisor and chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney, on Sunday. McSweeney’s departure, meant to act as a “lightning rod” for the scandal, has instead exposed the Prime Minister to a potential leadership challenge from within the Labour Party. Amid this instability, Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood has emerged as a formidable favorite to take the reins at 10 Downing Street.
Who is Shabana Mahmood?
The 45,year,old barrister,turned,politician is no stranger to making history. Born in Birmingham in 1980 with family roots in Mirpur, Pakistan,administered Kashmir, Mahmood became one of Britain’s first female Muslim MPs in 2010. An Oxford graduate and a former Lord Chancellor, she was promoted to Home Secretary in September 2025.
Mahmood is recognized within the party as a persuasive, highly ambitious operator. While she remains a key ally to Starmer, the current “bin fire” at the heart of government has shifted the focus toward her as a stabilizing, yet “tough” alternative. If she were to succeed Starmer, she would become the first Muslim Prime Minister in British history, a milestone that would fundamentally reshape the UK’s political landscape.
A Hardline Stance on Immigration
Unlike some of her predecessors on the Labour left, Mahmood has built her reputation on the right wing of the party, particularly regarding border security. She has been the primary architect of controversial new immigration reforms, famously stating that permanent residency in the UK is a “privilege and not a right.”
Her flagship policy involves doubling the time most migrant workers must live in the UK to qualify for “indefinite leave to remain,” moving the threshold from five years to ten. This hardline position is seen as a strategic move to win over voters who might otherwise defect to right,wing parties like Reform UK. While this has drawn criticism from some pro,migrant groups, it has bolstered her standing among centrist and right,leaning Labour MPs who believe the party needs a “firmness at the border” to survive the next election.
The Path to 10 Downing Street
Despite the momentum, Mahmood’s path to the premiership is not guaranteed. Under Labour Party rules, a leadership challenge requires the formal nomination of at least 81 MPs, or 20% of the party’s presence in the House of Commons. She also faces competition from other high,profile figures, including former Deputy PM Angela Rayner and Health Secretary Wes Streeting.
However, with Starmer’s approval ratings at historic lows and a series of difficult byelections scheduled for later this February, the pressure for a change in leadership is reaching a fever pitch. Analysts suggest that if Labour loses upcoming seats in Manchester or elsewhere, the “circular firing squad” within the party may finally result in a formal move to replace the Prime Minister with a fresh face like Mahmood.
