Key Points
- Seasonal Shift: Temperatures are rising in Delhi, Bhopal, and Rajasthan, with some areas already touching the 30°C mark.
- Western Disturbance: A fresh weather system will affect the Western Himalayan region from February 16, extending to the plains by February 17.
- Rain and Snow: Heavy snowfall is predicted for high,altitude areas of Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh, while Punjab and Haryana brace for thunderstorms.
- Valentine’s Day Outlook: Most of North India, including Delhi,NCR, will enjoy clear skies and pleasant sun for the weekend.
The weather across North India has entered a transitional phase since mid, February, marking the end of the harsh winter chill. From the national capital to Central India, the reliance on heavy woolens is diminishing as nighttime temperatures stay consistently above seasonal norms. However, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has cautioned that the atmospheric stability will be briefly interrupted by two consecutive Western Disturbances.
While the first system is currently moving across the northern mountains, a more potent second disturbance is expected to arrive on February 16, 2026. This system, accompanied by an induced cyclonic circulation, will trigger a mix of rain and thunderstorms across the plains and significant snowfall in the higher reaches of the Himalayas.
Himalayan Snowfall and Impact on High Altitudes
A snowfall warning has been issued for elevated regions above 12,000 feet in Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand. These high,altitude areas are likely to experience harsh conditions through February 18. According to meteorologists, this late,season moisture is crucial for the region, which has faced a “snow drought” for much of the early winter.
The influence of these mountain storms will be felt in the plains as cool, gusty winds. While daytime warmth persists, the early morning and late night hours will maintain a lingering chill due to the moisture brought in by the westerly winds.
Regional Forecast: Delhi, NCR, UP, and Rajasthan
For those celebrating Valentine’s Day, the weather in Delhi NCR is expected to be ideal. Skies will remain mainly clear with maximum temperatures hovering between 27°C and 29°C, and minimums around 11°C to 13°C. However, the respite is temporary, as light drizzle and thunderstorms are forecast for the capital region around February 17 and 18.
In Rajasthan, the heat has arrived early, with maximum temperatures in some districts already reaching 30°C. Similarly, in Bhopal and other parts of Madhya Pradesh, daytime highs are defying winter norms. Further east, in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, the weather will remain largely stable with clear skies until February 17, when increased cloud cover and isolated rain are expected to move in from the west.
Bay of Bengal and South India Update
Simultaneously, a low-pressure area is expected to form over the southeastern Bay of Bengal around February 15. This system is likely to influence the weather in South India and Sri Lanka, potentially bringing squally winds and rain to the coastal belts. While this will not directly impact the North Indian temperature rise, it indicates a broader shift in the subcontinent’s weather patterns as the pre,monsoon season approaches.
