Key Points
- The U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has proposed replacing the random H-1B lottery with a weighted, wage-based selection process.
- Under the new system, applicants in higher wage tiers would get multiple entries into the lottery, significantly increasing their selection chances over entry-level candidates.
- This follows a new rule that imposed a one-time $100,000 fee on employers for each new H-1B petition, effective September 21, 2025.
- The changes are expected to heavily impact young Indian professionals and smaller startups, while benefiting large, established companies that can offer higher salaries.
- The proposal is not yet a final rule and may face legal challenges, as a similar rule was struck down by a federal court in 2021.
Washington D.C.: Following the recent imposition of a $100,000 fee for new H-1B petitions, the Trump administration has proposed another significant overhaul to the visa program, moving to replace the random lottery with a wage-based selection system. This proposed rule from the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) would heavily favor higher-paid professionals, creating new hurdles for entry-level workers and startups, with a significant impact expected on Indian applicants who are the largest beneficiaries of the program.
How the New System Would Work
The DHS proposal seeks to end the purely random nature of the H-1B lottery, which currently gives all 85,000 applicants an equal chance of selection. The new plan introduces a “weighted selection process” based on four wage levels defined by the U.S. Department of Labor’s Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS) data.
Under the proposed rule, an applicant’s registration would be entered into the lottery multiple times depending on their offered salary level :
- Level IV (Highest Wage): 4 entries
- Level III (Experienced): 3 entries
- Level II (Qualified): 2 entries
- Level I (Entry-Level): 1 entry
This means a senior engineer with a top-tier salary offer would have four times the chance of being selected compared to a recent graduate in an entry-level position. According to DHS projections, this change could increase the selection odds for the highest-paid workers (Level IV) by 107%, while decreasing the odds for the lowest-paid workers (Level I) by 48%.
Impact on Indian Applicants and Startups
Indian nationals are the largest recipients of H-1B visas, accounting for approximately 71% of the 399,395 visas issued in fiscal year 2024. The proposed changes are expected to disproportionately affect this group, particularly recent graduates and professionals seeking entry-level roles in the U.S.
Immigration experts note that the new system creates a significant advantage for large tech companies like Meta or Google, which can afford to offer salaries in the highest wage tiers. In contrast, smaller startups and non-profit organizations that rely on global talent but may not be able to compete on salary will find it much harder to secure visas for their candidates. The DHS itself acknowledged the rule would impact small organizations, which could face costs of around $85,000 for each unfilled position.
Context and Legal Precedent
This is not the first attempt to implement such a system. The Trump administration finalized a similar wage-based rule in late 2020, but it was paused by the incoming Biden administration and subsequently struck down by a federal court in September 2021 before it could ever take effect. This history suggests that the new proposal, if finalized, is likely to face legal challenges from immigration advocates and business groups who argue it violates the Immigration and Nationality Act’s requirement to process petitions in the order they are received.
The move is part of a broader push by the Trump administration to reshape U.S. immigration, aiming to prioritize what it deems higher-skilled workers and protect American jobs from perceived wage depression. However, critics argue it will stifle innovation at emerging companies and close a vital pathway for global talent to contribute to the U.S. economy.
