New Delhi: Who will be the next Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh? Yogi Adityanath or Akhilesh Yadav, whose party will get power? Which party will form the government? Will get a full majority or a mixed government will be formed. The old government will come back with new issues or the new government will get the throne with new and old issues. After the voting for the last phase of the UP assembly elections, many agencies have released the exit poll estimates to find answers to all such questions.
After the elections are over, the data that is kept with force makes exit polls special. Where the common people predict the upcoming results from this, then the political parties get busy doing the arithmetic. But sometimes the estimates of exit polls go awry. Yes, if you do not believe, then you have to look at these figures of some similar exit polls related to Lok Sabha and assembly elections.
Lok Sabha Elections 2019 Exit Poll
The Times Now-ORG exit poll predicted 249 seats for the BJP-led NDA. Congress was expected to get 148 seats and others 146 seats.
India Today-CICERO exit poll showed NDA getting majority with 261 to 283 seats. UPA was told 110-120 seats and 150 to 162 seats going to the accounts of others.
CNN-IBN, CSDS had told NDA from 270 to 282, UPA from 92 to 102, and others from 159 to 181 seats.
In the exit poll of India TV-C Voter, the NDA is estimated to get 289 seats. The UPA was only shown going beyond 100. At the same time, 153 seats were said to be going in the account of others.
The election results that came
NDA- 336
UPA- 60
Others – 147
UP Assembly Election 2017
In the India Today-Axis survey, BJP had projected 251 to 279 seats, SP-Congress alliance 88 to 112 seats and BSP 28 to 42 seats.
In the exit polls of ABP-CSDS, BJP had predicted 156 to 169 seats, SP-Congress alliance 156 to 169, and BSP 60-71 seats.
Today’s Chanakya exit poll had predicted 285 seats for BJP, 88 seats for SP-Congress, and 27 seats for BSP.
In the exit poll of India TV-C Voter, BJP had predicted 155-167 seats, SP-Congress 135 to 147, and BSP 81 to 93 seats.
The election results that came
BJP- 325
BSP-19
SP- 47
Congress – 7
Delhi Assembly Election 2015
Today’s Chanakya-
BJP-14-28
you-42-54
Congress-0-2
CVoter-
BJP-27-35
you-31-39
Congress-2-4
AC Nielsen-
BJP-28
you-39
Congress-3
The election results that came
BJP- 03
you- 67
Punjab Assembly Election 2017
India Today-Axis-
BJP-SAD- 4-7
Congress- 62-71
You- 42-51
ABP-CSDS-
BJP-SAD- 19-27
Congress- 46-56
You- 36-46
Today’s Chanakya-
BJP-SAD- 09
Congress- 54
you- 54
India TV-CVoter-
BJP-SAD- 5-13
Congress- 41-49
You- 59-67
The election results that came
BJP-SAD-15
Congress- 77
you- 20
Bihar assembly election 2015
India Today-CICERO-
BJP- 120
JDU + 117
Others- 6
India TV-CVoter-
BJP- 111
JDU+122
Others- 10
Today’s Chanakya-
BJP- 155
JDU+83
Others- 5
ABP-Nielsen-
BJP- 108
JDU+130
Others- 5
The election results that came
BJP- 58
JDU + 178
Rajasthan assembly election 2018 exit poll
rajasthan assembly congress bjp other
Times Now- CNX 105 859
Axis My India 130 63 6
c voter 137 60 2
Jan Ki Baat 91 93 15
News X-NETA 112 80 7
Note- Except for one survey, all the rest had shown the formation of Congress’s government.
Chhattisgarh assembly congress bjp other
Times Now- CNX 46 45 9
Axis My India 26 60 4
c voter 39 46 5
Jan Ki Baat 44 40 6
News X-NETA 43 44 7
india tv 46 35 9
Today Chanakya 36 50 4
Note- In this election, Congress got 68 seats, while the BJP, which had run the government, was reduced to 15 seats.
West Bengal Assembly Election 2021
Agency / Seats Estimate TMC BJP Left + Congress
times now-c-voter 158 115 19
India TV-People’s Pulse 64-88 173-192 7-12
republic-cnx 133 143 16
Jan Ki Baat 113 173 6
ETG Research 169 110 12
P-Mark 162 113 13
India Today-Axis My India 130-15 6134-160 0-2
TV9-Polstrat 142-152 125-135 16-26
Today Chanakya 180 ± 11 108 ± 11 4 ± 4
Note- In this election, TMC formed its government with an absolute majority.
Post poll surveys are more reliable than exit polls
Dr. Arshad, Professor of Dr. BR Ambedkar University, says, “The number of samples does not matter in the exit poll survey. It matters how you do the survey. Sometimes the voter doesn’t tell you exactly who he voted for. Whereas post-poll surveys are more reliable than exit poll surveys. Because here the voter is not directly asked who he voted for. Rather, in the questions asked, he gets to know about his vote, who has been given it. This is the reason why exit poll surveys are not reliable.”
