Exit polls are actually an attempt to draw conclusions through trends. Talking to people, it is estimated where the results can go. Through this, it is estimated that which political party is winning where and who will be behind. However, there has always been doubting about their truthfulness.
Recently, assembly elections were held in two states of the country, Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat. In Himachal Pradesh, votes have been cast in one phase of elections on November 12. There are 68 seats in the assembly. In which the last elections BJP won 45 seats and Congress 20 seats while 03 seats went to independents.
Assembly elections were held in Gujarat in two phases. For the first phase, votes were cast on December 01, while for the second phase, the work of casting votes is underway on December 05. There are a total of 182 seats in the Gujarat Legislative Assembly, in which the BJP currently held 182 seats, while the Congress had 60 seats. Others had 04 while 08 seats were vacant.
What is the rule of the Election Commission regarding exit polls?
The Election Commission has made a rule that the trend of predicted results cannot be told through exit polls before the last phase of voting. After the last phase of voting, when the Election Commission will officially tell in the evening how much voting took place in the last phase, after that TV channels and some news sites will start giving the results of exit polls, which they have done themselves or through agencies.
Since questions are always raised on the accuracy of exit polls, it is natural to question what are these exit polls and how accurate are the predictions they make regarding the election results.
- What are exit polls and how are they conducted?
Exit polls are based on conversations or trends with the people who came out of the polling booth after voting. Through these, it is estimated in which direction the results are inclined. In this, voters are talked to on a large scale. Nowadays many organizations are doing the work of conducting it. - Why is permission to telecast exit polls given only after the voting is over? Why not earlier?
Under Section 126A of the Representation of the People Act, 1951, there should not be any such thing during voting which will affect the psychology of the voters or influence their decision to vote. Exit polls cannot be telecast till one and a half hours after the end of voting. And this can happen only when the last round of voting for all the elections is over. - Are exit polls always correct?
No, it is not like that at all. It has been proved in the past that the predictions made by exit polls proved to be wrong. The history of exit polls in India has not been very accurate. Many times exit polls have been completely opposite to the results. - What is the difference between opinion polls and exit polls?
Long before the voting, the opinion polls are done to know the behavior of the voters and what they can do. From this, it is told that this time in which direction the voter is planning to go. Whereas exit polls always happen after voting. - When did it start?
It is believed that these came out in 1967. Marcel Van Den, a Dutch sociologist, and former politician conducted exit polls during elections in the country. However, it is also said that this was done for the first time in America this year during the elections of a state. By the way, things like exit polls are said to have happened in 1940. - Why has there been opposition to them?
Because usually they are neither very scientific nor prepared on the basis of talking to many people. That’s why they are often away from reality. In many countries, there has been a demand to ban them. It was banned by the Election Commission in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections in India. Now, most people around the world do not consider them reliable.
