New Delhi: This winter has been unusually mild in India, and weather experts point to the absence of La Niña, a phenomenon that typically brings colder winters. Unlike previous years, the Pacific Ocean’s eastern temperatures have remained warmer, reducing the cold wave’s grip on the subcontinent. However, La Niña conditions might develop by January or February 2025, potentially ushering in a colder start to the new year.
What is La Niña, and Why Does It Matter?
La Niña is a climatic pattern that results from the interaction between the Pacific Ocean and the upper atmosphere. It causes cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific, often intensifying winter in India by bringing colder air masses. The absence of La Niña this season has led to milder temperatures, with many regions recording higher-than-normal minimums for December.
December 2024 to See Above-Normal Rainfall
While the cold might be subdued, December is expected to see above-average rainfall across India. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicts rainfall levels could reach 121% of the Long Period Average (LPA). Specific regions like the southern peninsula, west-central, east-central, and northeastern India are likely to receive more rain than usual, driven by strong weather systems.
Southern States Lead in Rainfall Surge
The southern states, including Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, Andhra Pradesh (Coastal and Rayalaseema), Kerala, and South Interior Karnataka, are forecast to receive 131% more rainfall than the LPA. These higher precipitation levels are expected to significantly influence national averages, while other parts of the country may experience normal or below-normal rainfall.
January-February: A Cold Wave on the Horizon?
As 2025 begins, the IMD predicts the potential emergence of La Niña conditions, which could bring colder temperatures in January and February. This late-season chill might intensify winter’s impact across northern and central India, making the early months of the new year colder than December.
What Does This Mean for India?
- Mild Winter So Far: A relief for those unprepared for harsh cold, but farmers may face challenges, as certain crops depend on seasonal temperature patterns.
- Increased Rainfall: Regions in the south and northeast can expect wetter Decembers, which might benefit water reservoirs but disrupt transportation and daily life.
- Possible Cold Wave in 2025: January and February could see a sharp drop in temperatures, reminding everyone that winter is still far from over.
IMD Continues Monitoring
The India Meteorological Department is closely watching global weather systems and La Niña developments to provide updates on India’s winter forecast. For now, brace for a wetter December and prepare for a potential cold snap in the months ahead.
