Key Points:
- Imports Drop: US sanctions cut India’s Russian oil imports by ~33% in late 2025.
- Major Halt: Reliance Industries stops Russian crude for its export refinery to comply with Jan 2026 EU rules.
- Dec Outlook: Kpler predicts December imports will stabilize at a low 1 million bpd.
- New Strategy: Refiners shift back to Middle East suppliers like Saudi Arabia and Iraq.
Strict new US sanctions and tariffs have forced a dramatic reduction in India’s Russian oil imports, causing volumes to fall by nearly one-third. Industry experts project a further decline throughout December 2025 as Indian refiners scramble to find alternative suppliers to avoid violating Western restrictions. Data from real-time analytics firm Kpler reveals that while imports from Russia averaged 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) in November, representing over 35% of India’s total crude mix, this surge was largely a pre-deadline rush. This November figure was notably higher than the 1.5 to 1.6 million bpd seen in October, marking a five-month high before the new curbs took effect.
Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst at Kpler, explained that daily volumes had spiked to between 1.9 and 2 million bpd just before the November 21st sanctions deadline, as Indian buyers aggressively pre-positioned large shipments to secure stocks.
Post-Deadline Impact: Flows Drop to 1 Million BPD
According to Ritolia, the momentum shifted immediately after the deadline passed. Imports have slowed considerably, as refineries had already built up sufficient reserves to sustain operations post-sanctions. Following November 21st, crude flows plummeted to approximately 1.27 million bpd, a sharp decrease compared to the month’s earlier peak.
Based on current loading schedules and ship tracking data, Ritolia estimates that December imports will stabilize at around 1 million bpd. This aligns with earlier forecasts suggesting Russian oil flows would contract to roughly 800,000 bpd in the short term before finding a new equilibrium.
Context: From Top Supplier to Sanctions Target
India, the world’s third-largest oil importer, became the primary buyer of discounted Russian oil starting in February 2022, capitalizing on Western nations distancing themselves from Moscow after the Ukraine war began. Traditionally dependent on West Asian crude, India pivoted to low-priced Russian barrels, with Russia’s share of the Indian market skyrocketing from just 1% to nearly 40% at its peak. Even in November 2025, Russia remained India’s largest supplier, accounting for more than one-third of total imports despite the looming crackdown.
Major Refiners Halt Imports Ahead of 2026 EU Ban
The landscape changed abruptly with the new sanctions regime. Major players, including Reliance Industries, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HPCL), HPCL-Mittal Energy Limited, and Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited, have currently suspended Russian imports to mitigate risk. Reliance Industries specifically halted Russian crude imports for its Jamnagar SEZ (export-only) refinery effective November 20, 2025.
This strategic move is intended to ensure compliance with European Union sanctions set to take effect in January 2026, which will ban the import of petroleum products refined from Russian oil in third countries. Consequently, refiners are diversifying their sources, increasing orders from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the United States to fill the gap. The only significant exception remains the Rosneft-backed Nayara Energy, which continues to rely primarily on Russian crude after supplies from other global sources were restricted.
