Key Points
- A new report from the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) estimates Russia possesses a total nuclear arsenal of approximately 5,459 warheads.
- Of these, an estimated 1,718 strategic warheads are actively deployed on intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched missiles, and at heavy bomber bases.
- Russia maintains a robust nuclear triad, enabling simultaneous strike capabilities from land, sea, and air, featuring advanced systems like the Avangard and Sarmat missiles.
- The report highlights concerns that Russia could rapidly increase its number of deployed warheads if the New START treaty is not renewed or replaced after its expiration in February 2026.
New Delhi: Amid escalating geopolitical tensions, a comprehensive assessment by the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) provides a sobering look into the scale and readiness of Russia’s nuclear forces. The data, published in the “Nuclear Notebook,” reveals that Russia has methodically modernized its arsenal and maintains a formidable nuclear triad capable of launching strikes from land, sea, and air. This intelligence has deepened concerns in the United States and Europe, where defense and strategic planning are being intensified in response to Russia’s aggressive posture on the world stage.
The Scale of the Stockpile
According to the FAS analysis for 2025, Russia’s nuclear inventory stands at an estimated 5,459 warheads. This figure is broken down into several categories:
- 1,718 strategic warheads are currently deployed on missiles and at bomber bases.
- 2,591 warheads are held in strategic or non-strategic reserve.
- 1,150 retired warheads are awaiting dismantlement.
Experts caution that these are conservative estimates, and the true size of the non-strategic (tactical) arsenal may be larger than is publicly known.
Dominance on Land, Sea, and Air
The report underscores Russia’s commitment to a versatile and redundant delivery system, ensuring second-strike capability and strategic dominance.
Sea-Based Nuclear Deterrent
A significant portion of Russia’s deployed nuclear power is hidden beneath the waves. Its navy operates a fleet of ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) armed with Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missiles (SLBMs). Key systems include the Bulava and Sineva missiles, which are equipped with MIRV (Multiple Independently-targetable Reentry Vehicle) technology. This allows a single missile to deliver multiple warheads to different targets, greatly complicating missile defense. The sea-based forces alone are estimated to carry approximately 992 nuclear warheads.
Land-Based ICBM Force
The backbone of Russia’s strategic deterrent remains its force of Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs). This includes a modernized mix of silo-based and mobile launchers designed for survivability. The arsenal includes advanced systems like the hypersonic Avangard (12 launchers), the new heavy ICBM RS-28 Sarmat (3 launchers), and the workhorse RS-24 Yars (180 launchers). In total, Russia’s land-based missiles are armed with an estimated 1,254 warheads.
Strategic Air Power
Completing the triad, Russia’s long-range aviation fields a fleet of strategic bombers, including 52 Tu-95MS and 15 Tu-160 “Blackjack” bombers. These aircraft are capable of carrying air-launched cruise missiles (ALCMs), giving them the ability to strike targets from standoff distances. This air wing is estimated to be capable of delivering up to 586 warheads.
Strategic Implications and Future of Arms Control
The FAS report warns of a potentially more dangerous era ahead with the looming expiration of the New START treaty in February 2026. This treaty currently caps the number of deployed strategic warheads for both Russia and the United States. The report suggests that if the treaty lapses without a successor agreement, Russia has the capacity to increase its deployed warheads by as much as 60%. This would fuel a new arms race and further destabilize global security, presenting a significant challenge for NATO and Western allies, who acknowledge the difficulty in countering Russia’s vast and diverse missile capabilities.
