Key Points
- Portugal cancelled plans to acquire 36 F-35 jets in March 2025, citing political uncertainty under Trump administration
- Spain formally shelved F-35 plans in August 2025, choosing Eurofighter Typhoon and Future Combat Air System instead
- Switzerland’s 36-aircraft deal worth $9.1 billion faces cancellation due to 39% tariffs and potential $1.3 billion in additional costs
- India rejected the F-35 proposal at Aero India 2025 due to 50% Trump tariffs, prioritizing indigenous Tejas fighter program
- Canada initiated re-examination of its 72-aircraft procurement plan despite already acquiring 16 jets
- Trump-imposed tariffs averaged 27% across foreign goods as of April 2025, a 100-year record
- Portugal’s Defense Minister Nuno Melo cited concerns about US NATO reliability under Trump administration
- Swiss lawmakers have gathered 42,500 signatures for “Stop F-35 Alliance” petition demanding programme cancellation
- Pentagon reduced its 2026 F-35 procurement targets due to cost pressures
- F-35 unit costs range from $80-100 million per aircraft, making program vulnerable to international order fluctuations
- Approximately 150 F-35 jets have been cancelled or placed on hold globally
- European nations are strengthening “Make in Europe” defence procurement campaigns as alternative
The F-35 Lightning II represents one of the most sophisticated military platforms ever developed, embodying cutting-edge stealth technology and multirole combat capabilities. Built by Lockheed Martin, the aircraft has been adopted by the US military and approximately 20 allied nations across North America, Europe, and the Asia-Pacific region. The F-35’s primary technological advantage lies in its advanced radar-evading stealth design, which allows the aircraft to penetrate heavily defended airspace while remaining virtually undetectable to enemy radar systems.
Multirole Combat Capabilities
The F-35 is engineered to perform across multiple combat domains simultaneously, distinguishing it from previous-generation single-purpose fighter aircraft. The platform can execute air-to-air combat missions against hostile aircraft, provide close air support for ground forces, conduct anti-ship operations against naval targets, and execute precision strike missions against land-based objectives. This comprehensive capability set makes the F-35 an exceptionally versatile platform for allied air forces seeking to consolidate multiple aircraft types into a single operational platform.
The Critical Price Problem
Despite its technological superiority, the F-35 faces a severe commercial vulnerability, a characteristic that has become increasingly apparent during the Trump administration’s tariff campaign. A single F-35 aircraft costs between $80-100 million per unit, making it among the most expensive fighter platforms in operational service worldwide. While large-scale international procurement historically kept unit costs relatively controlled through economies of scale, the recent cascade of order cancellations has fundamentally altered this cost-sharing arrangement.
Trump’s Tariff Policy and Its Design
The Trump administration implemented sweeping tariff increases beginning in early 2025, fundamentally restructuring American trade policy around protectionist principles. Trump’s signature policy approach, branded as “reciprocal tariffs,” establishes a framework whereby the US imposes tariff rates on foreign goods matching the tariff rates that foreign nations impose on American products.
Tariff Escalation Through 2025
The tariff regime escalated dramatically throughout the first half of 2025. Initial tariffs ranged from 10% to 50% on foreign goods entering the United States, creating significant cost pressures on multinational supply chains. By April 2025, the average US tariff rate had climbed to 27%, representing a level not seen in more than a century. This 100-year high in tariff rates fundamentally altered the calculus for foreign procurement decisions, particularly for expensive military platforms with extended procurement timelines and international supply chains.
F-35 Supply Chain Vulnerability
The F-35 program faces particular vulnerability to tariff policies because critical components and subassemblies are manufactured globally, with suppliers located across multiple allied nations. Increased tariff rates cascaded through the supply chain, raising the total cost of producing each aircraft. These cost increases were not absorbed by Lockheed Martin, but rather passed through to foreign purchasers as price escalations on agreed contracts.
Portugal Withdraws from F-35 Procurement, March 2025
Portugal became the first NATO ally to formally abandon F-35 procurement plans, a decision announced in March 2025 and marking a symbolic opening of the collapse in international orders. The Portuguese government had originally planned to acquire 36 F-35 aircraft to replace its aging fleet of General Dynamics F-16 Fighting Falcon jets.
Political Uncertainty Under the Trump Administration
Portuguese Defense Minister Nuno Melo explained the withdrawal decision by citing fundamental concerns about the reliability and predictability of the United States as a security partner. In an interview with Portuguese media outlet Público published on March 13, 2025, Melo stated: “We cannot ignore the geopolitical environment in our choices. The recent position of the United States, in the context of NATO, must make us think about the best options, because the predictability of our allies is a greater asset to take into account.”
Melo’s comments reflected widespread European anxiety regarding Trump’s unpredictable statements about NATO, including public questioning of whether the US would fulfill its Article 5 collective defense obligations. Additionally, Trump’s decision to halt weapons deliveries and intelligence sharing with Ukraine following a White House meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky alarmed European governments about the sustainability of US security commitments.
Alternative Procurement Strategies
Following the F-35 rejection, Portugal began considering European alternatives, including the Dassault Rafale, Saab JF-17 Gripen, and Eurofighter Typhoon. This pivot toward European platforms represented a symbolic rejection of American defense technology and a reaffirmation of European strategic autonomy in military procurement decisions.
Spain Cancels F-35 Plans, August 2025
Spain formally cancelled its F-35 procurement plan in August 2025, despite having previously evaluated the American platform against competing alternatives. The Spanish Defense Ministry announced that the government would instead focus on European alternatives, including the Eurofighter Typhoon and the Franco-German Future Combat Air System (FCAS) program.
Airbus and European Defense Industry Alliance
Spain’s decision represented a strategic pivot toward consolidating European defense capability around platforms supported by the Airbus, BAE Systems, Leonardo, Dassault Aviation, and Indra Sistemas defense industrial consortium. By choosing European alternatives, Spain reinforced the emerging “Make in Europe” defense procurement strategy among EU member states.
Trump’s NATO Spending Criticism
Trump had publicly criticized Spain over NATO spending levels, further damaging bilateral defense relationships and creating additional political pressure for Spain to reject American systems. This public criticism from the US president delegitimized the F-35 within Spanish political discourse and accelerated the shift toward European procurement alternatives.
Switzerland’s $9.1 Billion Deal in Jeopardy, August 2025
Switzerland faces the most complex F-35 decision among European nations, as the Swiss government had already finalized a contract for 36 aircraft worth approximately $9.1 billion. However, Trump’s tariff policies and subsequent price escalations have transformed this deal into a politically contested issue within Switzerland.
India Definitively Rejects F-35 at Aero India 2025
India took a decisive stance on the F-35 following the Aero India 2025 exhibition, where Lockheed Martin showcased the advanced fighter platform. Despite the technical demonstration, Indian defense officials rejected F-35 procurement outright, citing Trump’s 50% tariff on Indian goods as a primary concern.
Canada Re-examines 72-Aircraft Procurement
Canada has initiated a comprehensive re-examination of its F-35 procurement plan for 72 aircraft, even though the Canadian Armed Forces had already accepted delivery of 16 F-35A jets. This re-evaluation suggests fundamental questions about whether Canada will complete the acquisition of the full 72-aircraft fleet originally planned.
Financial Impact: Cascading Losses and Pentagon Budget Cuts
The cascade of international F-35 cancellations has created severe financial consequences for the program and the broader US defense industrial base. According to defense industry analysts, the cancelled orders and suspended procurement plans collectively represent a loss of approximately $100 billion in projected revenues for Lockheed Martin and its supplier network.
Pentagon Procurement Reductions
The Pentagon, recognizing the escalating costs associated with reduced production volumes and underutilized manufacturing capacity, has cut its own domestic F-35 procurement target for fiscal year 2026. This reduction in US orders compounds the revenue pressures facing Lockheed Martin by further reducing the scale of production economies.
Implications for American Taxpayers
Industry experts estimate that the cost impact of the F-35 program’s difficulties will ultimately be borne by American taxpayers through either reduced military capabilities, increased defense budgets, or reductions in funding for alternative defense programs. Some analyses suggest that each American family could face approximately $1,200 in additional annual tax obligations to offset the cost increases and reduced economies of scale in the F-35 program.
Job Losses and Defense Industrial Base Fragility
Lockheed Martin has signaled that the reduced F-35 production volume creates significant employment challenges for the company’s Fort Worth, Texas, manufacturing facility and its extensive network of component suppliers. Workers and union representatives have expressed concern about potential layoffs and reduced production schedules at facilities that were designed and staffed for much higher production volumes.
Ripple Effects Through Supply Chain
The reduced F-35 production volume has created downward pressure on component suppliers and subcontractors throughout the aerospace and defense industrial base. Companies that invested in manufacturing capacity and workforce development specifically to support F-35 production now face uncertain demand and potential workforce reductions.
European Defense Industry Expansion
The F-35 export crisis has simultaneously accelerated European defense industrial consolidation and expansion. European nations that have rejected or distanced themselves from the F-35 are investing increased resources into homegrown defense programs and strengthening the “Make in Europe” campaign.
Strategic Defense Alternatives
European aerospace and defense contractors including Dassault Aviation (France), Airbus Defence & Space, BAE Systems (United Kingdom), and Saab (Sweden), are positioning their respective combat platforms as viable alternatives to the F-35. These companies are receiving increased government support and research funding as European nations attempt to establish independent defense industrial capabilities less dependent on American suppliers.
Franco-German FCAS Program
The Future Combat Air System (FCAS), a Franco-German collaborative program, has emerged as a primary European alternative to the F-35. As allied nations reject American platforms due to Trump’s trade policies, the FCAS program receives increased political support and anticipated additional funding from European governments.
Strategic Implications of the F-35 Export Collapse
The deterioration of F-35 export orders represents a significant strategic victory for European defense manufacturers and a validation of long-standing arguments that the F-35’s high cost and complexity created vulnerability.
Erosion of American Defense Technological Leadership
Historically, the US defense industrial base has dominated global military platform markets through technological superiority and extensive international partnerships. The F-35 export collapse suggests that this dominance is not invulnerable when American trade policies create hostility toward allied nations.
Geopolitical Consequences
The shift of allied nations toward European defense platforms has profound geopolitical implications. As allied nations become less dependent on American military systems and more integrated into European defense industrial ecosystems, American influence over allied military capabilities and strategic planning diminishes.
Saudi Arabia F-35 Deal: Pending Congressional Approval
Trump approved the sale of F-35 fighters to Saudi Arabia in November 2025, but the deal faces congressional approval requirements and significant international opposition. Israeli government officials have strongly opposed the Saudi F-35 sale, arguing that Israel’s current technological military advantage in the Middle East would be compromised if Saudi Arabia acquired the advanced stealth platform.
The Saudi F-35 deal remains contingent on congressional approval and could face significant political obstacles in an increasingly divided US Congress regarding Middle East military partnerships.
Looking Forward: The Paradox of America First
The F-35 export crisis illustrates a fundamental paradox embedded in the Trump administration’s “America First” approach to trade policy. By implementing protectionist tariffs intended to shield American industries from international competition, the administration has inadvertently weakened one of America’s most strategically important defense industrial programs by reducing international demand and destabilizing allied military partnerships.
The F-35 program, built fundamentally on the premise of international military integration and collective alliance modernization, cannot function effectively when American trade policy creates hostility among allied purchasers. The next 12-18 months will prove critical in determining whether this trend reverses or whether the F-35 export collapse becomes permanent, fundamentally restructuring the global military aviation landscape.
