Key Points
- Tejashwi Yadav leads as the most preferred Chief Minister candidate in Bihar, with 41% support in the latest C-Voter survey.
- Incumbent CM Nitish Kumar’s popularity has dropped sharply, with only 18% backing him.
- Prashant Kishor, Samrat Chaudhary, and Chirag Paswan also feature as notable contenders.
- Seat-sharing talks intensify within both NDA and Mahagathbandhan alliances, with leadership and strategy in flux.
- Unemployment and inflation are top voter concerns; anti-incumbency sentiment is high.
Patna: As Bihar gears up for its crucial Assembly elections expected in October-November 2025, the political landscape is witnessing a dramatic shift. The latest C-Voter opinion poll reveals that Tejashwi Yadav, leader of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), has surged ahead as the most popular choice for Chief Minister, signaling a potential generational change in state leadership[2][5][7].
C-Voter Survey: Who Does Bihar Want as CM?
According to the survey:
- Tejashwi Yadav (RJD): 41% support, emerging as the clear frontrunner and the face of youth and change.
- Nitish Kumar (JD(U), Incumbent CM): Only 18% support, reflecting significant voter fatigue and anti-incumbency.
- Prashant Kishor (Jan Suraaj): 15% support, a rising challenger with a focus on grassroots issues.
- Samrat Chaudhary (BJP): 8% support, the NDA’s new face in the state.
- Chirag Paswan (LJP): 4% support, maintaining a niche appeal.
The survey also highlights that 58% of respondents feel Nitish Kumar’s credibility has “reduced a lot,” with unemployment (45%) and inflation (11%) cited as the most pressing issues for voters.
Alliance Dynamics: Seat-Sharing and CM Face Debates
Both the NDA and the Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance) are locked in intense negotiations over seat-sharing and leadership:
- NDA (BJP, JD(U), LJP, HAM, RLSP): The alliance has reaffirmed Nitish Kumar as its CM face for now, but internal surveys and opposition attacks have cast doubt on his continued dominance. The BJP is expected to contest around 100 seats, JD(U) 90–95, with the rest divided among allies.
- Mahagathbandhan (RJD, Congress, Left): While RJD is pushing for Tejashwi Yadav as the alliance’s CM candidate, Congress has not yet given open endorsement, seeking a larger share of seats and keeping the suspense alive to maintain bargaining power. A key alliance meeting is scheduled in Patna to finalize both seat-sharing and the leadership question.
Rising Players: Prashant Kishor and Jan Suraaj
Prashant Kishor, political strategist-turned-activist, has emerged as a significant third force. His Jan Suraaj Party, though new, has quickly gained traction, especially among youth and first-time voters. Kishor’s padyatra and focus on unemployment, education, and health have resonated, earning him 15% support in the CM preference poll.
2020 Election Recap: A Closely Fought Contest
In the 2020 Bihar Assembly elections:
- NDA (BJP + JD(U) + allies) won 125 out of 243 seats, just above the majority mark of 122.
- RJD-led Mahagathbandhan secured 110 seats, with RJD as the single-largest party (75 seats), BJP close behind (74), JD(U) (43), Congress (19), and LJP.
- The margin between alliances was razor-thin, setting the stage for another fiercely contested election.
Voter Mood: Demand for Change
The survey reveals a strong desire for change:
- 50% of voters are dissatisfied with the current government and want a new leadership.
- Youth-centric policies, job creation, and inflation control are expected to dominate campaign narratives.
What’s Next?
- Alliance Meetings: Both NDA and Mahagathbandhan will finalize seat-sharing and CM face in the coming weeks.
- Election Timeline: Polls likely in late 2025, but early elections remain a possibility.
- Campaign Focus: Expect sharp debates on unemployment, governance, and leadership credibility.
