
Key Points:
- Strategic Shift: Russia strengthens its relationship with Vietnam, assuring comprehensive support and encouraging its inclusion in BRICS.
- Xi Jinping’s Concern: China, which views Vietnam as part of its sphere of influence, is likely unsettled by Russia’s outreach to its regional rival.
- Vietnam’s Dilemma: Despite Russia’s overtures, Vietnam hesitates to join BRICS, wary of straining its defense ties with the United States.
- BRICS Expansion: The bloc has grown significantly, with countries like Iran, Egypt, and UAE joining in recent years, and others expressing interest.
- Russia’s Motive: Isolated by the Ukraine crisis, Russia seeks to strengthen alliances in Asia, including a focus on atomic energy cooperation with Vietnam.
Hanoi: In a move that could disrupt regional dynamics, Russia has intensified its engagement with Vietnam, a neighbor and longtime adversary of China. Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin visited Hanoi on Wednesday, signaling a strategic partnership with Vietnam and pledging support for its inclusion in BRICS as a partner country.
This development is expected to raise concerns for Chinese President Xi Jinping, who considers Vietnam a key element of China’s regional sphere of influence.
Russia Pushes Vietnam’s BRICS Entry
During his two-day visit, Mishustin praised Vietnam’s engagement with BRICS, a bloc originally formed by Brazil, Russia, India, China, and later South Africa to rival the G7. He stated, “Vietnam’s contribution to BRICS is commendable. We would like Vietnam to continue as a partner in this program.”
This statement could unsettle China, as it undermines Beijing’s efforts to maintain dominance over Vietnam and the broader region.
BRICS Expansion: A Growing Influence
Since its formation in 2009, BRICS has expanded to include new members like South Africa (2010), and more recently, Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, and UAE in 2023. With countries like Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Malaysia also showing interest, BRICS is evolving into a powerful counterweight to Western-led economic groups.
Vietnam’s Reluctance to Join BRICS
Despite Russia’s endorsement, Vietnam remains cautious about joining BRICS. Experts suggest this hesitation stems from concerns about its relationship with the United States, a key defense ally.
- US Defense Ties: The US supplies Vietnam with weapons and ammunition and has pledged support in case of conflict with China.
- Balancing Acts: Vietnam fears alienating Washington by aligning too closely with BRICS, a group that includes China and Russia, both of which challenge US influence.
Nguyen Khac Giang, an expert at Singapore’s ISEAS-Yusuf Ishak Institute, noted that Vietnam is treading carefully, wary of angering both the US and China.
Russia’s Strategic Goals in Vietnam
Russia’s focus on Vietnam is part of a broader strategy to strengthen ties in Asia amid its global isolation due to the Ukraine crisis.
- Energy Collaboration: Russia and Vietnam have discussed expanding cooperation in atomic energy, with plans to establish a national atomic energy industry in Vietnam.
- Countering Isolation: Strengthening ties with countries like Vietnam allows Russia to create new economic and strategic alliances, reducing its dependence on China.
China’s Potential Response
China views Vietnam as integral to its regional dominance and has historically sought to influence its decisions. Russia’s outreach could strain Sino-Russian ties, particularly as Vietnam’s alignment with BRICS would challenge China’s authority over its neighbor.
Conclusion: A Shifting Power Dynamic in Asia
As Russia strengthens its partnership with Vietnam, the geopolitical landscape in Asia faces a potential realignment. While Vietnam remains cautious about fully embracing BRICS, its growing ties with Russia could challenge China’s influence and further complicate US-China relations. This diplomatic maneuver underscores Russia’s intent to forge new alliances in an increasingly polarized world.