New Delhi: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Monday said that the latter part of the monsoon is likely to receive above-normal rainfall in August-September. IMD Director General Mrityunjay Mohapatra said in the forecast released for August that the monsoon is likely to be normal this month as well.
Mohapatra said that parts of West Madhya Pradesh and adjoining Rajasthan, interior parts of Maharashtra, Jammu, and Kashmir, Ladakh, some parts of Punjab, and Himachal Pradesh are likely to receive below-normal rainfall in August.
He said that Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Rayalaseema region of Andhra Pradesh, Konkan and Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, south Gujarat, northeastern states, and Bihar may receive above-normal rainfall during this month.
“The rainfall over the entire country is likely to be normal (95 to 105 percent of the long period average) during August to September 2021,” Mohapatra told an online press conference.
The long period rainfall (LPA) for the period from August to September over the country as a whole for the period 1961-2010 is 428.3 mm. Every year the IMD issues forecast for the months of August-September of the Southwest Monsoon, which are the last two months of the four-month rainy season.
The IMD said that the spatial distribution shows that there is a possibility of below normal rainfall in many areas of the north, east and eastern parts of the country. He said that most parts of peninsular India and adjoining central India are likely to receive moderate to above normal rainfall. IMD has started issuing month-wise forecasts for the four months of monsoon this year.
“The average rainfall in August across the country is likely to be above normal (94 to 106 percent of the LPA),” Mohapatra said. The August rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1961 -2010 is 258.1 mm of LPA.
According to the IMD, the spatial distribution shows that many areas of Central India and some areas of North India are likely to receive below-normal rainfall. “There is a possibility of normal to above normal rainfall over most parts of Peninsular India and Northeast India,” he said.
Mohapatra said that the present sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric conditions over the equatorial Pacific Ocean indicate neutral ENSO (El Nio) conditions. One of the factors influencing the Indian monsoon is SST. Sea surface temperatures are showing a cooling trend over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific oceans.
According to the IMD, the latest forecast suggests that the neutral condition of ENSO is likely to continue during the remaining part of the monsoon season and the La Nina condition is likely to re-emerge at or after the end of the monsoon season. La Nia is associated with the cooling of the waters of the Pacific Ocean, while El Nio is related to the warming of the waters.
