Monsoon Forecast: Above-Normal Rainfall Expected in July

New Delhi: After scorching heat in June, the much-awaited monsoon rains have brought relief to many parts of India. However, due to insufficient rainfall, humidity remains stubbornly high. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has now issued a fresh forecast for July, and here’s what you need to know:

Rainfall Outlook

• Above-Normal Rainfall: Except for some areas in the Northeast region, the country is likely to receive more than normal rainfall in July. The average rainfall across India is expected to be above normal, approximately 106 percent more than the long-period average (LPA) of 28.04 cm. Most regions will experience abundant rainfall, except for certain parts of Northeast India and portions of northwest, east, and southeastern peninsular India.

Temperature Trends

• Maximum Temperature: While the west coast can expect normal temperatures, many parts of northwest India and the south peninsular region are likely to remain below normal. Conversely, central India, the eastern states, and the west coast may experience above-normal temperatures.
• Minimum Temperature: In most parts of the country, minimum temperatures are expected to be above normal. However, some areas in the northwest and adjoining central India, along with southeastern peninsular India, may see near-normal minimum temperatures.

Record-Breaking June

• Hottest June Since 1901: Northwest India sweltered through the hottest June on record. The average temperature in this region reached 31.73 degrees Celsius. Notably, the monthly average maximum temperature soared to 38.02 degrees Celsius, a significant 1.96 degrees Celsius above normal. Meanwhile, the average minimum temperature stood at 25.44 degrees Celsius, surpassing the norm by 1.35 degrees Celsius. These extreme temperatures highlight the severity of the heatwave.

The monsoon’s progress has been closely monitored, and oceanic conditions, including the neutral Indian Ocean Dipole and active Madden-Julian Oscillation, play crucial roles in shaping the intra-seasonal rainfall patterns. Despite a delayed onset, the monsoon is gradually catching up, bringing hope for more widespread showers in July.