Key Points
- India’s security landscape is shifting from a “2.5 front war” (Pakistan, China, and internal threats) to a potential “3.5 front war” due to new trilateral cooperation among China, Pakistan, and Bangladesh.
- The first-ever trilateral meeting between officials from China, Pakistan, and Bangladesh was held in Kunming, China, signaling a new strategic alignment in South Asia.
- Bangladesh’s interim government, led by Prof. Mohammad Yunus, is moving closer to China and Pakistan, raising Indian concerns about regional security and trade.
- India recently banned Bangladeshi textile imports after Bangladesh’s overtures to China and its suggestion of using Bangladesh as a gateway to Northeast India.
- The evolving alliance could complicate India’s foreign policy and security calculations in the region.
New Delhi: India’s security concerns are entering a new era. For decades, the primary threats were along the borders with Pakistan and China, with internal security making up the so-called “2.5 front war” scenario described by the late General Bipin Rawat. Now, recent developments suggest India must prepare for a “3.5 front war,” with Bangladesh emerging as a new player in regional strategic alignments.
On June 19, 2025, the first-ever trilateral meeting between China, Pakistan, and Bangladesh took place in Kunming, China. The meeting was attended by China’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sun Weidong, Bangladesh’s Acting Foreign Secretary Ruhul Alam Siddiqui, and Pakistan’s Additional Foreign Secretary Imran Ahmed Siddiqui. Pakistan’s Foreign Secretary Amna Baloch joined via video link.
Although officially dubbed a “Development Friendly Trilateral Dialogue” focused on “People-Centric Development in South Asia,” the meeting’s subtext points to a deeper strategic realignment. The diplomatic gathering signals an emerging partnership that could reshape South Asian geopolitics and directly impact India’s security calculus.
Bangladesh’s Strategic Pivot: Growing Closeness with China and Pakistan
India’s concerns about Bangladesh have intensified since the political shift in Dhaka. In March 2025, Bangladesh’s interim government chief advisor, Prof. Mohammad Yunus, visited China and publicly called Bangladesh a “political and economic partner” of Beijing. He even suggested that China should use Bangladesh as a gateway to access the markets of Northeast India—a move that alarmed Indian policymakers.
In response, India imposed a ban on Bangladeshi textile imports on May 17, signaling its unease with Dhaka’s new foreign policy direction. The relationship, once strong under former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, has cooled significantly since her ouster and the rise of the interim government, which is now seen as tilting toward Beijing and Islamabad.
What Does This Mean for India?
The new trilateral cooperation among China, Pakistan, and Bangladesh could have several implications for India:
- Strategic Encirclement: India could face coordinated diplomatic and military pressure from three neighboring countries, complicating its defense and foreign policy strategies.
- Economic Impact: The shift could disrupt trade routes and economic partnerships, particularly if Bangladesh becomes a conduit for Chinese goods into India’s Northeast.
- Regional Stability: The alliance may embolden anti-India elements and increase the risk of cross-border tensions or proxy conflicts.
India’s security environment is becoming more complex as old alliances shift and new ones emerge. The Kunming trilateral meeting marks a significant moment in South Asian geopolitics, with Bangladesh’s pivot toward China and Pakistan raising the specter of a “3.5 front war.” Indian policymakers will need to recalibrate their strategies to address this evolving challenge and safeguard national interests in a rapidly changing region.
