New Delhi: Biporjoy, the first cyclonic storm in the Arabian Sea this year, has rapidly intensified into a severe cyclonic storm. This has led to a “slow onset” of monsoon over Kerala and “weak progress” ahead of its southern peninsula. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Wednesday morning that conditions are favorable for the onset of monsoon over Kerala within two days. However, meteorologists say that the cyclonic storm is influencing the intensity of the monsoon and its onset over Kerala will be “mild”.
According to the Meteorological Department, it is likely to move northwards and turn into a very severe cyclonic storm. After this, it will move north-northwest in the next three days. However, the IMD has not yet forecast any major impact on countries bordering the Arabian Sea including India, Oman, Iran, and Pakistan.
Weather forecasting agencies said the storm is moving from a cyclone to a severe cyclonic storm in just 48 hours, defying earlier assessments. The environmental conditions indicate very severe cyclonic storm conditions till June 12.
Meteorologists say that cyclonic storms are intensifying in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea and due to climate change, they may remain very active for a long time. According to a study, the intensity of cyclonic storms in the Arabian Sea has increased by about 20 percent in the post-monsoon season and 40 percent in the pre-monsoon period. The study is titled, “Changing Status of Tropical Cyclones in the North Indian Ocean”.
The number of cyclonic storms in the Arabian Sea has increased by 52 percent, while very severe cyclonic storms have increased by 150 percent. Roxy Mathew Cole, climatologist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, said, “Increased cyclonic activity in the Arabian Sea is closely related to ocean warming and increased moisture availability due to global warming. The Arabian Sea used to be cold, but now it is warm.
The southwest monsoon normally hits Kerala on June 1. It can be more or less about seven days. The IMD had said in mid-May that the monsoon could reach Kerala by June 4. Skymet had earlier forecast the onset of monsoon over Kerala on June 7, saying it could reach there three days earlier or later. In the last about 150 years, there has been a wide variation in the date of onset of monsoon over Kerala.
According to IMD data, it was most days ahead of the normal date on May 11, 1918, and was most delayed on June 18, 1972. The southeast monsoon arrived in Kerala on May 29 last year, June 3 in 2021, June 1 in 2020, June 8 in 2019, and May 29 in 2018.
Research shows that the delayed onset of monsoon over Kerala does not necessarily lead to the delayed onset of monsoon over northwest India. However, the late onset of monsoon over Kerala can be linked to delayed onset over southern states and Mumbai.
According to scientists, the delay in monsoon over Kerala does not even affect the total rainfall over the country for the entire season. The IMD had earlier said that despite the development of El-Nino conditions, India is likely to receive normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon season.