Key Points:
- Flight bookings between Canada and the US for April–September 2025 have dropped by over 70%, signaling a major travel crisis.
- Airlines like Air Canada and WestJet are cutting routes and reducing capacity due to declining demand.
- Trade tensions, rising tariffs, and political uncertainty under Trump’s administration are driving Canadians to avoid US travel.
Ottawa: The Canada-US air travel market is experiencing an unprecedented downturn, with flight bookings for April–September 2025 dropping by over 70% compared to the same period last year. This sharp decline, attributed to escalating trade tensions and political uncertainty fueled by President Donald Trump’s tariff policies, is reshaping cross-border travel and forcing airlines to reconsider their strategies.
Alarming Booking Decline
According to aviation analytics firm OAG, advance flight bookings from Canada to the US have collapsed. For instance, April 2025 recorded only 296,000 reservations a staggering 76% drop from last year’s 1.3 million bookings. Similarly, May bookings fell by 72%, with airlines cutting over 320,000 seats on transborder routes through October.
This decline is most pronounced during peak travel months like July and August, historically popular for vacations. The data reflects a growing reluctance among Canadians to travel south of the border amidst heightened trade tensions and shifting political dynamics.
Impact of Trump’s Tariff War
The downturn coincides with Trump’s imposition of a 25% tariff on Canadian goods, including steel and aluminum. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has condemned these tariffs as a “direct attack” on Canadian workers, warning that they have permanently altered the relationship between the two nations. Carney stated that the era of deep economic ties with the US is “over,” urging Canada to reimagine its economy independently.
The trade war has not only affected goods but also disrupted consumer confidence and travel patterns. Many Canadians are opting for domestic or international destinations outside North America instead of visiting the US.
Airlines Respond to Crisis
Canadian airlines like Air Canada, WestJet, and Porter Airlines are adjusting their schedules in response to plummeting demand:
- WestJet has canceled popular summer routes such as Calgary-New York LaGuardia and Edmonton-Orlando.
- Air Canada has reduced frequencies on key transborder routes like Vancouver-Washington Dulles and Toronto-Los Angeles.
- United Airlines and Delta have similarly cut flights between major Canadian cities and US hubs.
Airlines are reallocating resources to domestic or transatlantic routes where demand remains steady. However, industry experts warn that these adjustments may not be enough to offset the financial losses caused by declining cross-border traffic.
Economic Fallout
The drop in Canadian visitors poses significant challenges for the US tourism industry. In 2024, over 20 million Canadians contributed $20.5 billion in spending and supported approximately 140,000 American jobs. A sustained decline could result in billions of dollars in lost revenue and thousands of job losses across sectors reliant on tourism.
Travel Sentiment Shifts
A Leger survey revealed that nearly half (48%) of Canadians are less likely to travel to the US in 2025 due to political tensions and new immigration policies. High-profile incidents involving ICE arrests at US borders have further deterred travelers. Some Canadians report feeling unsafe or unwelcome under Trump’s administration.
Instead of traveling south, many Canadians are choosing domestic vacations or exploring destinations in Europe, Mexico, or the Caribbean. Airlines have paused marketing campaigns promoting US travel amid customer feedback deeming such efforts “tone-deaf” given current circumstances.
Looking Ahead
With no resolution in sight for the trade war or political tensions, experts predict that Canada-US air travel will remain subdued throughout 2025. Airlines may continue cutting capacity on transborder routes while focusing on alternative markets. For now, the skies between these neighboring nations remain quieter than ever a stark reminder of how geopolitical conflicts can disrupt even long-standing connections.
This downturn highlights a broader truth: trade wars don’t just impact goods; they fracture relationships, disrupt plans, and reshape industries far beyond their immediate scope.
