Key Points
- Trump wants Pakistani troops for Gaza peacekeeping and disarming Hamas
- Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar opposes disarming Hamas, signals civilian-military divide
- Risk of massive protests from TLP and Imran Khan’s party if troops deployed
- Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Qatar, and Jordan also hesitant to join Gaza mission
- Munir’s term extended until 2030 with expanded powers over air force and navy
- Decision could trigger civil war or military coup, devastate fragile economy
Struggling with severe economic hardship and ongoing political turmoil, Pakistan now appears caught in an international trap that could devastate its internal security. Amid reports of supporting US President Donald Trump’s controversial Gaza plan, Pakistani Army Chief General Asim Munir stands at the most critical juncture of his career. His attempts to forge closer ties with the White House are becoming a major liability for Pakistan, potentially forcing the nuclear-armed nation into a no-win situation.
If Munir decides to send troops to Gaza, it would pose a significant risk not only for Pakistan’s foreign policy but also for domestic stability and public sentiment within the country. The decision comes at a time when Pakistan is grappling with a severe economic crisis, having just secured a $7 billion IMF bailout. It faces mounting pressure from multiple fronts, including terrorism, political instability, and separatist movements in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
Trump’s Gaza Plan and US Expectations
The growing closeness between Pakistani Army Chief Asim Munir and US President Donald Trump is no secret in diplomatic circles. Trump’s 20-point Gaza plan explicitly emphasizes using the armies of Muslim countries for peacekeeping and reconstruction efforts in the war-torn territory. The US wants military forces from countries like Pakistan to act as a buffer zone in Gaza, disarming Hamas and protecting Israeli interests under the guise of regional stability.
Refusing the US is difficult for Munir because he is hoping for security assistance and substantial investment from Washington to maintain his power and stabilize Pakistan’s economy. The army chief has reportedly been in direct communication with US officials, seeking billions in military aid and economic investment that could help Pakistan avoid another balance of payments crisis. However, this pursuit of American support is increasingly seen as a dangerous gamble that could backfire spectacularly on the domestic front.
Civilian-Military Discord Over Gaza Mission
Munir’s potential Gaza mission has created significant tension within the corridors of power in Pakistan. The recent statement by Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar points to this discord, as Dar clearly stated that while Pakistan could be part of a peacekeeping force, disarming groups like Hamas is not the job of the Pakistani army. This statement indicates a lack of consensus between the government and the military leadership on this sensitive issue.
Experts believe the Foreign Ministry fears that this mission could tarnish Pakistan’s image, portraying it as a mercenary army serving American and Israeli interests. The civilian government, led by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, appears reluctant to endorse a mission that could trigger massive public opposition and further destabilize the country. This divide between the powerful military establishment and the civilian government creates a constitutional crisis that could undermine Pakistan’s fragile democratic institutions.
Threat of Domestic Uprising and Lone Wolf Attacks
The Pakistani public and its hardline Islamic groups have historically been opposed to the US and Israel, viewing both countries as enemies of Islam and Pakistan. If Munir sends troops to Gaza, Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party and organizations like the Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP) will portray it as treachery against Islam and betrayal of the Palestinian cause.
Despite the recent ban on the powerful Islamist party, its ideology remains deeply entrenched in society, particularly among urban lower-middle-class youth and conservative religious circles. Large-scale protests could erupt on the streets of Karachi, Lahore, Islamabad, and Peshawar, potentially leading to a complete breakdown of law and order in the country. Security agencies fear that the decision could also trigger lone wolf attacks against military installations, government buildings, and Western interests within Pakistan.
Regional Hesitation and Pakistan’s Isolation
It’s not just Pakistan; countries like Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Qatar, and Jordan are also hesitant to participate in this mission directly. These countries fear that any attempt to disarm Hamas would directly drag them into the conflict and make them targets for Iranian-backed militant groups across the region. They also worry about domestic backlash and the perception of betraying the Palestinian cause.
However, Asim Munir recently visited all these countries in a diplomatic tour seen as an attempt to build consensus on the Gaza mission. Munir’s challenge is that if he proceeds alone without the support of these countries, he will be branded a traitor domestically, and if he backs down, he will face the wrath of the United States. This diplomatic isolation leaves Pakistan in a precarious position, potentially becoming the sole Muslim-majority country to commit troops to a mission widely viewed as serving Israeli interests.
Munir’s Consolidated Power and Legal Immunity
Asim Munir has emerged as one of the most powerful army chiefs in Pakistan’s history. He has received a term extension until 2030 and has recently been given command of the air force and navy as well, consolidating unprecedented control over all military branches. Despite complete legal protection and unlimited powers, the decision regarding the Gaza mission could prove suicidal for him and devastating for Pakistan.
The army chief enjoys constitutional immunity and has sidelined political opponents through controversial legal proceedings. However, unchecked power often breeds unlimited opposition, and Munir’s concentration of authority has created resentment within the officer corps and civilian bureaucracy. His Gaza gamble represents the ultimate test of his power, one that could either cement his legacy or lead to his downfall.
Potential Consequences: Civil War or Military Coup
If Munir’s gamble backfires, it could lead to a new kind of civil war or a military coup in Pakistan, completely devastating the already fragile economy. The country could face a situation where the military splits along ideological lines, with some factions supporting the Gaza mission and others opposing it. This internal division could trigger a chain reaction of instability, potentially leading to the collapse of civilian government and military rule.
Economic consequences would be catastrophic, with foreign investment drying up, IMF support potentially suspended, and the risk of default increasing dramatically. The decision could also reignite separatist movements in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, where anti-military sentiment is already strong. Pakistan’s nuclear weapons program adds a dangerous dimension to any internal conflict, raising international concerns about command and control stability.
