Key Points
- Gold futures jumped ₹5,320 intraday to hit a record high of ₹1,57,464 per 10 grams on MCX
- Silver surged ₹2,200 to reach ₹3,32,950 per kilogram amid industrial and investment demand
- COMEX gold touched $4,787.40 per ounce, silver hit $94.890 per ounce in international markets
- Trade dispute between US and European Union triggered massive safe-haven buying
- Weakening dollar index and domestic wedding season demand added bullish momentum
February gold futures on the Multi-Commodity Exchange of India opened gap-up at ₹1,55,886 per 10 grams and extended gains to touch an all-time high of ₹1,57,464, reflecting a massive 2.70 percent single-day spike. The contract, with February 5 expiry, ultimately settled at ₹1,56,240, up ₹4,200 from the previous close. Silver for March delivery followed a similar trajectory, opening at ₹3,25,326 per kilogram and rallying to an intraday peak of ₹3,32,950 before closing at ₹3,28,450, registering a gain of 1.85 percent. Market participants reported heavy buying from bullion dealers and jewellery manufacturers across major hubs like Mumbai, Delhi, and Ahmedabad, with volumes surging 40 percent above the 20-day average.
International Markets Mirror Bullish Trend
Overseas markets displayed equal vigor as safe-haven flows accelerated. COMEX gold futures in New York climbed from Tuesday’s close of $4,748.30 to a peak of $4,787.40 per ounce, while silver advanced from $94.160 to $94.890 per ounce. The rally coincided with a 0.4 percent drop in the US Dollar Index to 101.85, making dollar-denominated metals cheaper for foreign buyers. European investors poured into precious metals after US President Donald Trump threatened 25 percent tariffs on European Union automotive imports, raising fears of a transatlantic trade war. The European Central Bank’s hints at slower monetary easing also supported bullion prices.
Geopolitical Uncertainty Fuels Safe-Haven Demand
The primary catalyst stems from deteriorating US-Europe trade relations, with Trump administration officials preparing a comprehensive tariff package targeting $200 billion in European goods. This uncertainty, compounded by ongoing tensions in the Middle East and South China Sea, prompted institutional investors to increase gold allocations to 8 percent from the previous 6.5 percent. Domestic factors amplified the trend, as India’s wedding season peaks this week with an estimated 50,000 ceremonies nationwide, driving retail gold purchases up 35 percent year-on-year. “Jewellery showrooms in tier-2 and tier-3 cities are witnessing unprecedented footfall,” noted Rajesh Khosla, president of the All India Jewellers Association.
Analysts Predict Further Upside
Market experts believe the rally has room to extend. “We are seeing a perfect storm of macroeconomic uncertainty, currency weakness, and seasonal demand,” said Anil Sinha, senior commodity analyst at Mumbai-based WealthFirst Brokers. He projects gold could test ₹1,60,000 per 10 grams by the month-end if US-Europe negotiations fail. Silver, benefiting from both investment appeal and industrial consumption in solar panel manufacturing, may breach ₹3,40,000 per kilogram. The gold-silver ratio currently stands at 47.2, suggesting silver remains relatively undervalued compared to historical averages.
Investment Inflows and Inventory Data
Exchange-traded funds added 15 tonnes of gold to their holdings on Tuesday, the highest single-day inflow since October 2025. MCX warehouse data shows registered gold stocks declined to 28 tonnes from 31 tonnes last week, indicating tight physical supply. Import premiums in Mumbai jumped to $45 per ounce over London prices, up from $28 last week, reflecting strong local demand. The Reserve Bank of India’s latest data revealed it purchased 8 tonnes of gold in December 2025, bringing total reserves to 831 tonnes.
