Key Points
- NDA (BJP + JDU + LJP (R) + HAM) is leading on a clear majority of seats and appears set to form the next government.
- JDU is performing strongly and is emerging as the largest or one of the largest parties in the new Assembly.
- Women voters, Nitish’s welfare schemes, and Modi–Shah’s aggressive campaign have significantly boosted NDA’s prospects.
- Internal rifts, poor coordination, and delayed seat-sharing between RJD and Congress weakened the Grand Alliance.
- The presence of the NDA at the Centre and the promise of “double-engine government” has reassured voters about development and stability.
Patna: The results of the 2025 Bihar Assembly elections are now being declared, and trends show a decisive tilt in favour of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). According to official Election Commission data available so far, the Nitish Kumar-led coalition is on track to return to power in the state once again. Nitish Kumar’s party, the Janata Dal (United), is performing impressively and is positioned as a key pillar of the new government.
As per current trends, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is leading in 83 seats and the JDU in 79 seats. Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) [LJP (R)] is ahead in 22 constituencies, while Jitan Ram Manjhi’s Hindustan Awam Morcha (HAM) is leading in four. Taken together, these numbers indicate that the NDA is poised to form the government in Bihar with a strong, potentially landslide majority, far above the halfway mark in the 243-member Assembly.
Although counting is still underway and final tallies may shift slightly, the overall trend is firmly in favour of the NDA. This clearly shows that the people of Bihar have once again chosen continuity and have placed their trust back in Nitish Kumar’s leadership.
Why NDA Won And The Grand Alliance Lost
As soon as the trends started stabilizing, political observers and voters alike began searching for the reasons behind the NDA’s emphatic victory and the Grand Alliance’s heavy defeat. If you are wondering what turned the tide so strongly, here are the key factors that appear to have shaped this verdict.
Reason 1: ₹10,000 Scheme And The Women’s Vote
One of the biggest factors behind the NDA’s performance in the 2025 Bihar Assembly elections is the strong support from women voters. This time, around 9% more women voted compared to men, making women a decisive voting bloc. Just before the polls, Nitish Kumar’s government deposited ₹10,000 each into the accounts of women under the “Women’s Employment Scheme”.
This direct cash transfer not only gave economic relief but also created a sense of trust and gratitude towards the incumbent government. Voters could see a tangible benefit already in their bank accounts. In contrast, RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav had promised a one-time ₹30,000 amount for women as a “respect allowance”, but that was a future promise, dependent on him coming to power. Many voters may have found it safer to reward the government that had already delivered cash benefits rather than rely on a promise that might or might not be fulfilled.
Reason 2: The Nitish Factor In Bihar
Nitish Kumar is a unique figure in Bihar politics, often unpredictable, but consistently central. Even seasoned political analysts find it risky to write him off. The late journalist Sankarshan Thakur, in his book “Akela Aadmi – The Story of Nitish Kumar”, observed that whenever commentators predicted Nitish’s end, he staged a comeback with double the strength.
Similar speculation was doing the rounds this election as well, with many claiming that Nitish had reached the end of his political road. However, the results tell a different story: JDU has once again emerged as a major force, and Nitish remains central to any government formation. There is also a prevailing narrative that this might be Nitish Kumar’s last big electoral battle. Many voters seem to have treated this as a kind of “farewell gift”, choosing to send him back as Chief Minister one more time in recognition of his long innings and perceived administrative experience.
Reason 3: Modi–Shah’s High-Octane Campaign
The campaigning by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah is also seen as a major reason for the NDA’s sweeping victory. Both leaders invested significant time and energy in Bihar, addressing rallies, roadshows, and targeted public meetings across the state. They raised issues that resonated strongly with the electorate, such as “Jungle Raj”, law and order, and the return of so-called “Katta Politics” (gun culture) if the opposition came to power.
These references tapped into old fears about instability and crime under earlier regimes. The combined branding of a “double-engine government” (same alliance in state and Centre) and the personal popularity of Modi helped the NDA project itself as the safer, more stable option. Political analysts believe the Modi–Shah campaign helped consolidate floating voters and fence-sitters in favour of the NDA in the final phase of decision-making.
Reason 4: RJD–Congress Rift In The Grand Alliance
Another critical factor behind the Grand Alliance’s poor performance has been the lack of cohesion between its main constituents RJD and Congress. After the elections were announced, these two parties struggled to finalize seat-sharing arrangements. Right up to the night before the last date of nominations for the first phase, there was confusion over who would contest which seats.
In several constituencies, both RJD and Congress ended up fielding candidates, leading to vote-splitting within the alliance’s natural support base. This didn’t just hurt them arithmetically; it also sent a damaging message to the electorate. Voters got the impression that if the Grand Alliance could not coordinate seat-sharing during a crucial election, similar internal fights and instability might continue for the full five-year term if they formed the government. This perception of disunity played straight into the NDA’s narrative of being a more organized and dependable coalition.
Reason 5: NDA Government At The Centre And “Double-Engine” Pitch
The fifth and perhaps most decisive reason for the NDA’s resurgence in Bihar is the presence of an NDA government at the Centre. Nitish Kumar’s JDU is a key ally in this central coalition. For a state like Bihar, which still requires heavy investment in infrastructure, welfare, and jobs, the promise of strong coordination between Patna and New Delhi is highly attractive.
Voters believe that if the same alliance is in power at both levels, Bihar will get faster approvals, more funds, and smoother implementation of central schemes. This “double-engine government” narrative has worked strongly in the NDA’s favour. Many people have therefore reposed greater trust in Nitish Kumar and the NDA’s promises of development, stability, and continuity, as compared to the comparatively uncertain and fractious Grand Alliance.
Conclusion: Bihar Backs Nitish And NDA Again
At the moment, counting is still in progress in Bihar, and some seat-wise numbers may change as the final results are tallied. However, the direction of the mandate is clear: the NDA is on course to form the government with a solid majority, and Nitish Kumar is poised to return as Chief Minister once again.
The 2025 verdict shows that the people of Bihar have reaffirmed their faith in Nitish Kumar’s leadership, endorsed the NDA’s development narrative, and rejected a divided and poorly coordinated opposition. Women’s support, welfare schemes, the Nitish factor, the Modi–Shah campaign, and the appeal of a double-engine government have together shaped this powerful mandate in favour of the NDA.
