Washington D.C: Vice President Kamala Harris has gained a narrow lead over former President Donald Trump in a recent national presidential poll, marking one of the first significant surveys since President Joe Biden announced his decision to end his reelection campaign and endorse Harris. The Reuters/Ipsos poll, conducted in the two days following Biden’s announcement, shows Harris ahead by two points, with 44 percent to Trump’s 42 percent.
Poll Dynamics Post-Biden Withdrawal
In the previous week’s poll, Harris and Trump were tied at 44 percent each. The recent shakeup in the Democratic race, with Harris emerging as the frontrunner, has contributed to her slight edge over Trump. Despite being within the polls’ margins of error, these numbers reflect a competitive race as the nation gears up for the 2024 election.
Mixed Results in Concurrent Polls
While Harris leads in the Reuters/Ipsos poll, another survey released on the same day shows her trailing Trump. The PBS News/NPR/Marist poll, conducted on Monday, reveals Trump with a one-point advantage over Harris, 46 percent to 45 percent among registered voters, with nine percent undecided. When third-party candidates or independents are included, Trump and Harris are tied at 42 percent, with other candidates trailing significantly.
Impact of Biden’s Withdrawal
Biden’s exit from the race has had a notable impact on public opinion. The PBS News survey found that 87 percent of Americans believe Biden’s decision to withdraw was the right move, a sentiment shared across political and generational lines. Additionally, 41 percent of respondents think Biden’s departure increases the Democrats’ chances of winning in November, compared to 24 percent who believe it decreases their odds and 34 percent who see no impact.
Convention Bounce and Assassination Attempt
The polls come in the wake of the Republican National Convention, where Trump formally accepted his party’s nomination and the aftermath of an assassination attempt on Trump at a Pennsylvania rally on July 13. Despite these events, Harris’s polling performance suggests she has managed to neutralize the usual post-convention bounce that benefits nominees.
Current Standing in Poll Aggregates
An average of polls collated by RealClearPolitics shows Trump holding a very narrow advantage of 1.6 percentage points over Harris. These close margins underscore the highly competitive nature of the upcoming election, with both candidates vying for every vote.
As the race progresses, the evolving dynamics and public sentiment will play crucial roles in determining the outcome in November.
