Further decline in rupee possible, domestic currency may fall to the level of ₹82

Rupee fall

New Delhi: The depreciating rupee may fall further. Economists believe that the rupee may fall further to 82 per dollar in the near future due to the increasing trade deficit and aggressive increase in interest rates by the US Federal Reserve this week.

Federal Reserve may increase interest rates by 0.50-0.75 percent
There is speculation that the Federal Reserve may increase interest rates by 0.50-0.75 percent in the July 26-27 meeting. This can accelerate the outflow of foreign capital from emerging markets like India. Due to the outflow of the dollar and higher crude oil prices, the rupee may further depreciate. Last week, the rupee had fallen to its all-time low of 80.06 per dollar.

Rupee will be around 79 per dollar
Economists believe that after touching its all-time low, the rupee may remain at around 78 per dollar till March next year. Sunil Kumar Sinha, Principal Economist, India Ratings and Research said, “According to our assessment, the rupee will be around 79 per dollar. This will be the average value of Rs. In the current period of decline, the rupee can break further and go below 81 per dollar.

Aditi Nair, Chief Economist, ICRA, said, “Ultimately, global sentiment and inflows of foreign portfolio investors will decide whether the rupee will weaken further in the rest of the year or whether the dollar’s ‘strength’ will decline amid fears of a slowdown in the US. .”

Rupee fall

Rupee will remain under pressure in the near future
Nomura believes that from July to September, the rupee can go down to a low of 82 per dollar due to many factors. CRISIL also expects that the rupee will remain under pressure in the near future and the rupee-dollar exchange rate will be volatile. Crisil’s chief economist Deepti Deshpande said, “However, by the end of the financial year, the pressure of the rupee will be somewhat less. By March 2023, the exchange rate may remain at Rs 78 per dollar. It was 76.2 per dollar in March 2022.

The trade deficit rises to a record high of $26.18 billion in June
It is noteworthy that due to expensive imports, the trade deficit increased to a record level of $ 26.18 billion in June. In the April-June quarter of the current financial year, the trade deficit increased to $ 70.80 billion.